Queensland Property Prices Set for Double-Digit Growth in 2026 — And What It Means for Moreton Bay

Queensland’s property market is gearing up for another year of exceptional performance, with major forecasters tipping double-digit price rises across Brisbane and multiple regional hubs in 2026. According to realestate.com.au, citing SQM Research’s Housing Boom and Bust Report, Brisbane dwelling values are expected to lift 10–15% under the base-case scenario, placing the city firmly among Australia’s strongest performers.

Regional markets are set to shine as well. The Sunshine Coast is forecast to grow by the same margin, while Mackay/Airlie Beach could rise 7–12%, and the Gold Coast is expected to post gains of 7–11%. These figures comfortably exceed the national average forecast of 6–10% growth across capital cities.
Source: realestate.com.au

Why Queensland Is Outperforming

SQM Research managing director Louis Christopher attributes the strong outlook to several converging forces:

• Interest rate cuts feeding renewed buyer confidence
• Government incentives for first-home buyers
• Population growth driving housing demand faster than supply
• A diversified economy, particularly in Brisbane, which supports mining services, energy, exports, and a booming tourism sector
• Major infrastructure investment, including city-shaping projects ahead of the 2032 Olympics

This blend of economic depth and capacity-building is creating a runway for continued price escalation well above the likes of Sydney (+3–6%) and Melbourne (+4–7%).

Where Moreton Bay Fits In — The Quiet Achiever of SEQ

While the SQM report spotlights Brisbane and coastal hotspots, industry analysts and local experts see a powerful story unfolding just north of the city: Moreton Bay.

As one of Australia’s fastest-growing regions, Moreton Bay sits at the intersection of several accelerating trends:

1. Population Pressure Overflowing from Brisbane

With Brisbane expected to welcome 40,000–50,000 new residents, immediate neighbouring LGAs such as Moreton Bay become natural relief valves. Historically, when Brisbane enters strong double-digit cycles, price uplift radiates outward within a 10–25 km band, and Moreton Bay sits directly in that zone.

2. Massive Infrastructure Underway

The region’s value proposition is backed by transformative public and private investment, including:

• The Moreton Bay University Precinct
• Bruce Highway upgrades
• Caboolture West PDA groundwork
• North Harbour expansion and marina projects
• Transport, wastewater, and digital network upgrades supporting rapid growth

These aren’t speculative ideas — they’re already in motion and reshaping long-term economic capacity.

3. Relative Affordability Compared With Brisbane and the Coasts

Moreton Bay continues to offer significantly better value per square metre than the inner city or coastal markets, particularly for:

• families needing space
• developers seeking medium-density opportunities
• acreage buyers priced out of the Sunshine Coast hinterland

In previous cycles (2017–2021, 2020–2023), this “value gap” closed rapidly once SEQ entered a rising market. The 2026 forecasts suggest that pattern is primed to repeat.

4. Emerging Employment and Commercial Nodes

From Morayfield and North Lakes to the growing industrial spine through Burpengary, Narangba, and Brendale, Moreton Bay is evolving from a commuter region into a diversified employment base. This reshapes property values by strengthening local demand and reducing reliance on metropolitan job centres.

What Could Push Prices Even Higher?

Beyond SQM’s projections, several additional factors may amplify outcomes in the Moreton Bay and wider SEQ markets:

• Ongoing interstate migration as NSW and Victorian affordability erodes
• Supply shortages, especially in detached housing and large-format land
• Construction constraints, with many builders still carrying post-COVID cost burdens
• Investor re-entry as yields strengthen and vacancies tighten across QLD
• The transformation of SEQ leading up to the 2032 Olympics, generating nation-leading infrastructure spend

If these pressures persist, analysts suggest the northern growth corridor could outperform even today’s optimistic forecasts.

The Bottom Line

Queensland is poised for another powerful run, and the Moreton Bay region stands to be one of the biggest beneficiaries. With affordability, infrastructure momentum, and spill-over demand from Brisbane, the region sits at the convergence of long-term growth drivers.

For homeowners, developers, and investors, 2026 may represent a decisive year — not just for price increases, but for long-term positioning in one of Australia’s fastest-evolving markets.