Moreton Bay’s momentum builds as Brisbane buyers look north

Moreton Bay has become one of South East Queensland’s most talked-about move-to regions, with fresh reporting suggesting a strong wave of Brisbane residents are packing up and heading north for more space, better value, and a lifestyle that still keeps the city within reach.

According to recent coverage, Moreton Bay recorded more than 19,000 domestic migrants over three years, including almost 10,000 people relocating from Brisbane. The numbers reinforce what many locals have been feeling on the ground: demand is being fuelled not just by interstate movers, but by Brisbane households chasing a “bigger life” without a complete change of orbit.

Why Moreton Bay demand continues to grow

Moreton Bay’s appeal isn’t a mystery — bayside living, growing infrastructure, schools, retail hubs, and commuting options — but the pricing gap between Brisbane and Moreton Bay has become a major decision driver.

The same report published by realestate.com.au and the Courier Mail puts Moreton Bay’s median house price around $825,000, versus $1 million-plus in Brisbane, while still delivering family-sized homes within roughly 30–45 minutes of the CBD in many pockets.

That affordability narrative is also being backed by strong long-term results, with the coverage pointing to house price growth “up to 95%” over five years across parts of the region — a headline figure that reflects just how quickly the market has reshaped since the earlier phase of the cycle.

The growth story is shifting — and that matters

While the five-year growth numbers are eye-catching, the reporting also notes that annual growth has started to moderate, suggesting Moreton Bay may be entering a steadier phase after a rapid run. For buyers, that can mean a market that’s less frantic than the peak, but still highly competitive in well-located pockets. For the region overall, it’s a sign of maturity — and an indication that Moreton Bay isn’t simply a “spillover” market anymore.

Suburbs being tipped to watch in 2026

The coverage highlights a number of Moreton Bay suburbs as standouts for the year ahead, including:

• North Lakes
• Narangba
• Burpengary
• Caboolture
• Redcliffe
• Margate
• Newport

These names reflect a mix of established demand centres and lifestyle-led bayside choices — the types of areas that appeal to movers seeking either a family base, a bayside shift, or strong access to Brisbane and key employment nodes.

The “affordable alternative” is getting tighter

One of the most important takeaways in the reporting is that Moreton Bay’s value proposition is evolving.

It points to 26 of Moreton Bay’s 62 house suburbs now sitting at $1 million-plus, signalling that the region’s affordability isn’t uniform — and that some pockets have already joined Brisbane in premium territory. At the same time, it highlights the spread across the region by noting Highvale as the most expensive house suburb (median $1,862,500) and Brendale as the cheapest (median $597,000, with reported five-year growth of 118.9%).

In plain terms: Moreton Bay still offers value — but the window is narrowing in the most in-demand pockets, and suburb selection matters more than ever.

Deeper dive: the demand story goes beyond “Brisbane movers”

The headline numbers are grabbing attention, but the deeper demand picture in Moreton Bay is being driven by a combination of inflows and churn inside the region itself.

Community profile data shows the City of Moreton Bay’s estimated resident population was 522,494 as at 30 June 2024, up 2.44% year-on-year — strong growth for an already large council area. It also shows Brisbane is the biggest source of net migration into Moreton Bay over the three years to June 2024, with a net gain of 9,779 people. But here’s the part that often gets missed: more than half of moves recorded within Australia were “within-LGA” moves, meaning a huge amount of demand is also being created by locals shifting suburbs — upsizing, downsizing, changing schools, or moving closer to work.

That internal movement matters because it keeps competition elevated across multiple price points, not just the classic “Brisbane buyer” bracket.

On the supply side, Council’s Regional Growth Management Strategy forecasts the region growing to around 690,000 residents by 2041, requiring delivery of about 88,300 additional dwellings. In other words, the long-term plan assumes a sustained build program — and if delivery lags, pressure tends to show up first in tight rental conditions, then in buyer urgency for well-located family stock.

The result: even as annual price growth cools from peak conditions, the underlying demand drivers remain firmly in place.